Trend of Base Oil Prices in November 2025: Market Analysis & Outlook

During November 2025, the global base oil market experienced notable fluctuations. According to the latest report from Lubes’n’Greases, Group II spot prices declined due to oversupply, while naphthenic grades and Bright Stock maintained relative stability. This combination of forces reshaped the trend of base oil prices in November 2025, becoming the strategic reference point for refineries and lubricant manufacturers worldwide.

Release of Emergency Inventories and Its Impact on Supply

After the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico ended, major refineries such as Excel Paralubes and Chevron-affiliated units resumed full operations. Simultaneously, emergency inventories previously reserved for seasonal disruptions were reintroduced into the market. This action triggered a short-term supply surge and immediate spot price declines. According to Lubes’n’Greases experts, this injection of stored volumes during late November was the key driver shaping the trend of base oil prices in November 2025 toward a downward trajectory.

Global Demand and Signs of Market Fatigue

On the demand side, although automotive sectors in China and India showed gradual recovery, the industrial lubricants market remained sluggish after the previous quarter’s downturn. End users in metalworking and precision component manufacturing decreased order volumes by around 12%. Meanwhile, mild recession among mid-tier European automakers weakened periodic purchases. These consumption behaviors led to price stabilization at levels below the six-month average, reinforcing the trend of base oil prices in a prolonged bearish phase.

Naphthenic Oils: A Calm Refuge Amid Market Volatility

Amid general decline, naphthenic oils behaved differently. Limited production capacity in North America and Scandinavia, coupled with consistent demand from rubber and cable industries, kept their prices stable. U.S. export rates to Turkey and South America remained almost unchanged, and quarterly contracts were renewed without discounting. As a result, the relative market share of naphthenics slightly increased, and their stability helped soften the downward slope of the trend of base oil prices .

Bright Stock: The Balancing Axis of the Global Market

Heavy-grade Bright Stock, the sensitive link in the industrial lubricants chain, faced global shortages during November 2025. Several Middle Eastern plants underwent scheduled maintenance, and exports from Southeast Asia declined. Consequently, Bright Stock prices stayed stable, registering minor gains in long-term contracts. This small upward movement in heavy grades slowed the pace of the trend of base oil prices, preventing deeper market falls.

Feedstock Developments and Pressure on Refiners’ Profit Margins

The increase in supply of light crude, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA), narrowed the gap between feedstock and Group I/II product prices. Hydroprocessing-based refineries experienced lower margins in November, driving many producers to short-term export strategies to preserve cash flow. Rising production and logistics costs pushed companies to revise their pricing models, using the trend of base oil prices in November 2025 as a benchmark for winter planning and risk avoidance.

Regional Factors: Asian Markets in Focus

Higher imports into Singapore and activity levels at Malaysian and South Korean refineries played key roles in regional price stabilization. Analysts believe steady, though modest, demand growth in Southeast Asia, especially for paraffinic grades, could lead to partial price recovery through December and January. Thus, within Asian market evaluation, the trend of base oil prices in November 2025 is seen as a transitional phase toward new equilibria rather than a continuous decline.

Environmental Policies and Changing Standards

The enforcement of ACEA Heavy-Duty 2024 sequences between October and November impacted demand for high-viscosity lubricants. Many European producers are adapting formulations for new diesel engine oil standards, with local refineries setting up updated production streams. These technical shifts will likely influence supply-demand balance in the medium term, shaping the trend of base oil prices in November 2025 through the next quarter.

Winter Outlook: Gradual Stabilization through December and January

Seasonal data suggests mild price increases during December as automotive and heavy-equipment industries traditionally expand winter operations. Planned refinery maintenance in Europe and the U.S. could temporarily constrain supplies. Collectively, these factors will move the market from November’s slump toward a stabilization phase. Most analysts agree that the trend of base oil prices in November 2025 has already reached its bottom and will start to rise modestly in the fourth quarter.

Strategic Recommendations for Lubricant Industry Players

Review feedstock procurement and Group II delivery schedules based on the current price floor.

Focus on Bright Stock and Naphthenic grades to maintain steady profit margins.

Use Argus and Lubes’n’Greases datasets for securing export contracts through winter.

Monitor ACEA standard updates and their effects on additive formulations.

Set domestic pricing policies aligned with the projected trend of base oil prices in global markets.

Final Summary

The November 2025 base oil market displayed a fragile equilibrium between supply and demand: downward pressure on Group II spot deals, in contrast with Naphthenic and Bright Stock resilience. For Iranian or regional lubricant manufacturers and trading companies, November represented a strategic window for analyzing market movements and preparing for winter allocation. Continuous monitoring of global data remains the best approach for understanding the trend of base oil prices in November 2025 and tailoring sales strategies accordingly.

In line with the analysis of the trend of base oil prices in November 2025 and the upcoming winter supply strategies, reviewing the technical specifications and diversity of the company’s industrial lubricants can provide a clearer view of the available options in the market.

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Source: Lubes’n’Greases Magazine – November Base Oil Report, 3 Nov 2025